Taking Home The Naked Gold Man

I know I’m a little late with this, but since it’s not March yet, there’s still time for a little Oscar predictions. I did my thing for the Golden Globes and a lot of my predictions came true, including the ones I only hoped and didn’t think will actually win (Robert Downey Jr for Sherlock Holmes, Michael C. Hall for Dexter) and there were a few disappointments (Avatar winning best picture whaaat??, Chloe Sevigny winning Best Supporting Actress for TV Series Comedy instead of Jane Lynch), but it does not deter me from trying to tap into the crystal ball once again and hope that I do better at the Oscars. 🙂

So here are my predictions for the key categories in this year’s Academy Awards, let’s hope that when March comes, every prediction actually comes true. Fat chance of that happening, but hey, who knows?

As with the Golden Globes, I’ll pick two winners for each category: Who I Think Will Win and Who I Want To Win. Sometimes they’re one and the same, so let’s see if the Academy actually agrees with me this time. Oh and what’s slightly different than the Golden Globes list is that I will also pick “The Dark Horse” in each category, the one that no one expects to win (including myself, really) – but as in the case of previous years, sometimes the Academy actually goes for The Dark Horse, so we’ll see!

Here are the nominees:

Best Picture:

Avatar – James Cameron and Jon Landau

The Blind Side – Gil Netter, Andrew A. Kosove and Broderick Johnson

District 9 – Peter Jackson and Carolynne Cunningham

An Education – Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey

The Hurt Locker – Kathryn Bigelow, Mark Boal, Nicolas Chartier and Greg Shapiro

Inglourious Basterds – Lawrence Bender

Precious: Based on The Novel Push by Sapphire – Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness and Gary Magness

A Serious Man – Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

Up – Jonas Rivera

Up In The Air – Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman and Jason Reitman

Who I Think Will Win:

The Hurt Locker – Kathryn Bigelow, Mark Boal, Nicolas Chartier and Greg Shapiro

Why? Because this movie was robbed during the Golden Globes, and I think the theme of this movie will resonate more with Academy Members than the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. And because I was SO bummed by Avatar winning Best Picture Drama in The Golden Globes that I don’t even want to predict it to win the big honors at the Oscars. Yes, I’m a sore loser 🙂

Who I Want To Win:

Inglourious Basterds – Lawrence Bender

Why? Because this is my favorite film of 2009: it has everything – drama, comedy, war, and Jews with guns. It’s Tarantino at his best and there’s just nothing like it, ever.

The Dark Horse: I think The Dark Horse in this category is Up. Even though it’s a Box Office smash hit and I personally love it, it’s a Disney/Pixar animation flick and I’m not so sure The Academy is going to give the highest honor to a Disney/Pixar sensation.

Actor In A Leading Role:

Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart

George Clooney – Up In The Air

Colin Firth – A Single Man

Morgan Freeman – Invictus

Jeremy Renner – The Hurt Locker

Who I Think Will Win:

Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart

Why? I still haven’t seen the movie so I can’t say for sure why, but he did win Best Actor for Motion Picture Drama in the Golden Globes and every movie critic I know seem to think he’s a sure win for this category. And remember Reese Witherspoon winning the Oscar for Walk The Line a few years ago? The Academy sure love actors playing country singers.

Who I Want To Win:

Jeremy Renner – The Hurt Locker

Why? I have finally seen The Hurt Locker, and aside from the movie being amazing, Jeremy Renner’s performance was also unbelievable. He’s not that new in the Hollywood scene but he hasn’t had his big break yet, and I think winning an Oscar could give his career a boost which he truly deserved. So I’m rooting for him.

The Dark Horse: George Clooney. I know, picking George Clooney as The Dark Horse is a little weird, but if you’ve seen Up In The Air, you’ll see why. He was great in it, don’t get me wrong, but the character is not that much of a stretch for him to play. Ryan Bingham is so much like the real George Clooney that it seems his chances of actually winning this time is slim to none.

Actor In A Supporting Role:

Matt Damon – Invictus

Woody Harrelson – The Messenger

Christopher Palmer – The Last Station

Stanley Tucci – The Lovely Bones

Christoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds

Who I Think Will Win & Who I Want To Win:

Christoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds

Why? If you’ve seen Inglourious Basterds, you’ll know that it’s silly to ask why. Christoph Waltz’ performance as SS Colonel Hans Landa was (pardon my French) abso-fuckin-lutely amazing. And when he won the Golden Globes, everyone seems to be in agreement that he deserved it. From movie critics, fellow actors, film enthusiasts, to the millions of Twitter users who were live-tweeting the Golden Globes last month, everyone is rooting for this German actor who was practically an unknown before Inglourious Basterds.

The Dark Horse: Considering the above reasons, I think pretty much everyone else in the category is The Dark Horse.

Actress In A Leading Role:

Sandra Bullock – The Blind Side

Helen Mirren – The Last Station

Carey Mulligan – An Education

Gabourey Sidibe – Precious: Based on The Novel Push by Sapphire

Meryl Streep – Julie & Julia

Who I Think Will Win & Who I Want To Win:

Sandra Bullock – The Blind Side

Why? Well, first of all, she won both The Golden Globes and The Screen Actors Guild Award for her portrayal of Leigh Ann Touhy in this movie, which means her odds of winning the Oscar has gone up significantly. In previous years, winning both the Globes and SAG meant a sure win for the Oscars, as in the case of Jennifer Hudson a few years back. And personally, I think Sandra Bullock deserved to win. She was truly amazing in the role and the movie was so inspirational that it’ll just be awesome if she wins.

The Dark Horse: Carey Mulligan. An Education is funny, smart and a great indie movie, and she was really good in it, but she’s a relative unknown and considering the competition, I don’t think she stands out too much.

Actress In A Supporting Role:

Penelope Cruz – Nine

Vera Farmiga – Up In The Air

Maggie Gyllenhaal – Crazy Heart

Anna Kendrick – Up In The Air

Mo’Nique – Precious: Based on The Novel Push by Sapphire

Who I Think Will Win & Who I Want To Win:

Mo’Nique – Precious: Based On The Novel Push by Sapphire

Why? Have you seen the movie? The woman was on fire! I didn’t expect her to do such a sensational job in this role, considering she was more known for her work in comedy instead of drama, and this was a difficult role to inhabit as well, but Mo’Nique truly shone and play this hard-to-love character with such heart and humanity that you can’t help but want to give her the highest honor.

The Dark Horse: Vera Farmiga. In all honesty, I don’t really know why she was nominated since even though she was good in Up In The Air, I didn’t think her acting was all that special. Anna Kendrick was fresh, funny and pitch-perfect in her role as Natalie, but Vera Farmiga as Alex was not that impressive in my opinion. She was good, don’t get me wrong, but just not impressive enough for the Oscars.

Animated Feature Film:

Coraline – Henry Selick

Fantastic Mr. Fox – Wes Anderson

The Princess and The Frog – John Musker and Ron Clements

The Secret of Kells – Tomm Moore

Up – Pete Docter

Who I Think Will Win & Who I Want To Win:

Up – Pete Docter

Why? It’s the best Disney/Pixar animation since Finding Nemo. The story was touching, beautiful and resonate well for both children and adults. It’s the kind of movie that would make you hold back your tears while muttering, “I can’t believe I’m crying at f–king cartoon!” (because I did that). And considering that this movie is also up for Best Picture, it’s safe to say that the award is already in the bag for this category.

The Dark Horse: The Princess and The Frog. Considering the competition, The Princess and The Frog has zero to little chance of winning. Academy members always vote for animation that is not the typical Disney fairytale concept, so I think they should just be happy they’re nominated.

Costume Design:

Bright Star – Janet Patterson

Coco Before Chanel – Catherine Letterier

The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus – Monique Prudhomme

Nine – Colleen Atwood

The Young Victoria – Sandy Powell

Who I Think Will Win:

The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus – Monique Prudhomme

Why? Fantasy movies always have the best, most creative costumes and this one is no exception. I thought the designs were mind-blowing, imaginative and kooky, perfect for the movie and I think Academy Members are going to appreciate it the most.

Who I Want To Win:

Coco Before Chanel – Catherine Letterier

Why? Gabrielle Bonheur “Coco” Chanel was a true fashion legend, she was responsible for revolutionizing women’s fashion and she basically single-handedly changed the world of fashion forever. And this movie showed who she was, the fierce, fabulous and visionary woman who was not afraid of going against the stream. I think it should win simply because the costume designer Catherine Letterier did a great job recreating early Chanel work in this movie.

The Dark Horse: I’m going to say Janet Patterson for Bright Star. Seeing the competition, I think it’ll be a surprise if she actually does win it.

Directing:

Avatar – James Cameron

The Hurt Locker – Katherine Bigelow

Inglourious Basterds – Quentin Tarantino

Precious: Based on The Novel Push by Sapphire – Lee Daniels

Up In The Air – Jason Reitman

Who I Think Will Win:

Avatar – James Cameron

Why? Well, it’s a no-brainer, really. It took James Cameron 20 years to make this movie, and it was groundbreaking film-making, I admit that. The only thing I had a problem with was the mediocre script, I feel like if you take the visual effects away, the story was nothing special. But when it comes to directing, and his vision, I admit it was pretty amazing and I think the Academy will recognize that as well.

Who I Want To Win:

Inglourious Basterds – Quentin Tarantino

Why? Well, I’ve been a fan of Quentin Tarantino since I was in High School, so I am biased when it comes to him. But only the mind of one Quentin Tarantino can give birth to such a fantastic, over-the-top, imaginative movie about World War II and Hitler, so in my opinion he deserves to win just as much as James Cameron does.

The Dark Horse: Jason Reitman. I feel sorry for him, since he’s a talented director and I love his movies (Thank You For Smoking, Juno, to name a few) but he’s up against industry veterans in this category and his chances of winning are pretty slim. But he’s young and he’s going to continue making great movies, so I see an Oscar for him in the future.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay):

District 9, written by Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell

An Education, screenplay by Nick Hornby

In The Loop, screenplay by Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche

Precious: Based on The Novel Push by Sapphire, screenplay by Geoffrey Fletcher

Up In The Air, screenplay by Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner

Who I Think Will Win:

Up In The Air, screenplay by Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner

Why? It is a really good movie, and the story is very easy to relate to in today’s economy. Not to mention, Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner won the Golden Globes for Best Screenplay, so I think they have the best chance of winning this category.

Who I Want To Win:

District 9, written by Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell

Why? I know the Academy doesn’t usually favor sci-fi movies in general, but I think District 9 is more than just a sci-fi aliens living among us movie. It is deep, original and the story is so amazing. I know it didn’t win at the Golden Globes, but I am really hoping it will win the Oscar.

The Dark Horse: Nick Hornby for An Education. I love Nick Hornby, I think I’ve read all of his books, seen almost all the movie adaptations of his novels (including the poorly adapted Fever Pitch), and I love An Education. But somehow I think it’s not his time to win the Oscar yet, not when he’s up against fan and critics-favorite Up In The Air and District 9.

Writing (Original Screenplay):

The Hurt Locker, written by Mark Boal

Inglourious Basterds, written by Quentin Tarantino

The Messenger, written by Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman

A Serious Man, written by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen

Up, screenplay by Bob Peterson, Pete Docter. Story by Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Tom McCarthy

Who I Think Will Win:

The Hurt Locker, written by Mark Boal

Why? I usually don’t like war flicks, but this one is different. It’s special, it’s thought-provoking, it’s deep and it asks the all-important question of “why are we in a war anyway?”. I think Academy members will agree that this movie deserves the honor in this category.

Who I Want To Win:

Inglourious Basterds, written by Quentin Tarantino

Why? I told you I’m biased when it comes to Tarantino. 🙂 And in all seriousness, the movie is so different that it requires a genius to write it, and I think Tarantino needs to be acknowledge in this category.

The Dark Horse: The Messenger. Considering the competition, the movie is not that strong of a contender, I think even Up has a better chance of winning.

Who do you think will take home the naked gold man? Any predictions?

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6 responses to “Taking Home The Naked Gold Man

  1. I’m rooting for Carey Mulligan in the Best Actress category. I’ll admit, I haven’t seen the Sandra Bullock movie but I just thought that Mulligan was really amazing in An Education.

  2. I think the best picture will unfortunately go to Avatar…

    The Best Supporting Actor and Animated Feature awards should be no brainers so I definitely agree with your predictions above.

    I still think Chanel will get the best costume, and finally, I believe between Avatar and Inglorious Basterds (which I too, loved), there won;t be much room for the Hurt Locker…

    Will see the results in March 😛

  3. welcome back!!! I’ve missed reading your work!!! I’ve made a brand new blog and will be copying and pasting some of my work onto it. I was unable to import them…or maybe I’m missing something on how to do it correctly.

    I’ll be adding your blog to my blogroll so I may continue to follow you. my new blog name is:

    http://imnotfancy.wordpress.com

    Tasha

  4. Hey hey! Binks with her crystal globe is back again. Haven’t seen much of the listed. Of course, I’m very much favor Quentin and everybody from his pack. District 9 and Jeff Bridges got my voice too. Must agree with you that Costumes should go to Coco. But how about Terry Gilliam? Will you leave him empty handed?

  5. Binky:

    If you accept blogging awards, I left you a couple (you are welcome to take both, one or none) on today’s post .

    I things are going well for you.

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